Seems like it lines up with the Autor/Thompson expertise framework pretty nicely. Less expert tasks (flight booking) were automated, while more expert tasks (coordinating with wealthy clients) weren't, so employment fell and wages rose.
The big question for welfare, which there's probably no good data on, is how successful the displaced agents were at switching professions.
Also, is there a hypothesis for why, as agent clientele “pivoted sharply upward” they experienced outsized employment rate changes relative to the market? My naive assumption would be demand during periods of economic ~shakiness~ would be far more resilient for that upmarket demographic as compared to the mass market that agents were serving prior
my favorite example is icers - the people who used to go to ponds in canada in the winter/early spring and then haul these huge blocks of ice down to new york to get ice for drinks and such. Before refrigeration
I believe that the future belongs to advisors, not agents anymore.
The article confirms what many of us in the travel trade already know: the old travel agent model declined, but the advisory model became more valuable.
That shift is especially relevant for destinations like India.
India is not a destination where travelers only need inventory. They need interpretation.
They need someone to tell them what not to do, what to slow down, what to avoid, which route looks good on paper but fails on the ground, and where the real experience lies beyond the obvious monuments.
This is why I believe the future of inbound India travel belongs to specialist advisors, not generic sellers.
The agent who only sells packages will struggle. The advisor who solves anxiety, designs rhythm, and protects the quality of the journey will become more valuable.
The upmarket pivot is real, but I think it hides something important. Wages did recover for those who stayed, but the profession is now more sensitive to recessions than before. The market keeps shrinking until only the most secure jobs are left, and then it points to those survivors as proof that things worked out. Still, I agree with the policy takeaway: it's better to focus on helping people transition than to panic about unemployment. Great write-up, Ernie.
Seems like it lines up with the Autor/Thompson expertise framework pretty nicely. Less expert tasks (flight booking) were automated, while more expert tasks (coordinating with wealthy clients) weren't, so employment fell and wages rose.
The big question for welfare, which there's probably no good data on, is how successful the displaced agents were at switching professions.
Incredibly well put.
How greatly has travel spend expanded in the US since the 90s? What is the counter factual total agent employment in that world?
Also, is there a hypothesis for why, as agent clientele “pivoted sharply upward” they experienced outsized employment rate changes relative to the market? My naive assumption would be demand during periods of economic ~shakiness~ would be far more resilient for that upmarket demographic as compared to the mass market that agents were serving prior
What a great analysis!
my favorite example is icers - the people who used to go to ponds in canada in the winter/early spring and then haul these huge blocks of ice down to new york to get ice for drinks and such. Before refrigeration
I believe that the future belongs to advisors, not agents anymore.
The article confirms what many of us in the travel trade already know: the old travel agent model declined, but the advisory model became more valuable.
That shift is especially relevant for destinations like India.
India is not a destination where travelers only need inventory. They need interpretation.
They need someone to tell them what not to do, what to slow down, what to avoid, which route looks good on paper but fails on the ground, and where the real experience lies beyond the obvious monuments.
This is why I believe the future of inbound India travel belongs to specialist advisors, not generic sellers.
The agent who only sells packages will struggle. The advisor who solves anxiety, designs rhythm, and protects the quality of the journey will become more valuable.
I'm honestly astounded there are that many travel agents still. I would have guessed a far lower percentage of the ~2000 peak employed today.
The upmarket pivot is real, but I think it hides something important. Wages did recover for those who stayed, but the profession is now more sensitive to recessions than before. The market keeps shrinking until only the most secure jobs are left, and then it points to those survivors as proof that things worked out. Still, I agree with the policy takeaway: it's better to focus on helping people transition than to panic about unemployment. Great write-up, Ernie.
Interesting how stable it’s been though lately.